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Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

 
 
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 07:52 am
Quote:
For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.


In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.


Quote:
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

I cannot imagine all the southern states being under the influence of Mexico. The Mexican government can't maintian stability within their own country.

Stranger things have happened throughout history. Is this guy a kook, or is he onto something???
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mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 08:02 am
@Phoenix32890,
Quote:
Is this guy a kook, or is he onto something???


A little bit of both, I think.
IF the US does fall apart, I dont think it wil be along the lines he does.
I think it will be more of an ideological split, along "conservative" and "liberal" lines.
I think that what will happen is that people with the same political or ideological views will form their own "mini countries" in the US.
They will be making their own laws, yet still paying taxes to the federal govt and flying the American flag.
Each group will still support and defend the US Constitition, but they will all interpret it their own way.

The US will become more like it was when the "Articles of Confederation" were in effect right after the revolutionary war.
rosborne979
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 09:18 am
@Phoenix32890,
Phoenix32890 wrote:
Stranger things have happened throughout history. Is this guy a kook, or is he onto something???

Sounds like a kook to me. Of course, virtually anything is "possible", but his predictions sound highly improbable to me.

Even though Americans see things differently along various lines, I don't know too many of them who feel strongly motivated to shoot their next door neighbor over any of it.

I think the russian professor underestimates just how much most americans love their country even though they complain about it from time to time.
0 Replies
 
George
 
  2  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 09:59 am
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-AO116_RUSPRO_NS_20081228191715.gif
Rockhead
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 10:01 am
@George,
No way Tennessee leaves Alabama and Georgia behind...

(the SEC will live forever)
George
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 10:03 am
Mid 2010 -- less than two years from now.
I predict he starts backpedaling in September of 2009.
George
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 10:04 am
@Rockhead,
Maybe we will actually divide along athletic conference lines.
Hmmm...
0 Replies
 
rosborne979
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 10:05 am
And I'm sure the Alaskan's are all gonna just love being given to Russia. At least Sarah Palin won't have to keep an eye on them Ruskies any more. Smile
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 10:17 am
@Phoenix32890,
I have a hard time taking this seriously. Though I have certainly felt before that the country is too big at times, I think this prediction is mostly wishful thinking -- projecting Russia's fall onto us. For one thing, on which "ethnic" lines would we divide? We have no ethnically pure states. Cultural maybe.

And IMO MS, AL, GA, and FL all go with the Atlantic states to form the Eastern Seaboard.
0 Replies
 
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 10:25 am
@mysteryman,
I find this talk of starting another Civil War quite offensive. We already had one, and although the good guys won, it wasn't a very pleasant experience for either side.

Conservatives need to accept the fact that the United States (with the emphasis on United) is a democracy.
George
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 10:27 am
@ebrown p,
Quote:
...and although the good guys won...

Hoo, boy. Now ya done it.
0 Replies
 
mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 10:36 am
@ebrown p,
I am not saying, nor did I say, anything about another civil war.
I dont think that will happen.
I think it will be a peaceful split.
0 Replies
 
raprap
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 10:40 am
Predicted in 1981 by Joel Garreau as
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/35/9nations.png
the nine nations of north america.

http://www.amazon.com/Nine-Nations-North-America/dp/0380578859

Rap
0 Replies
 
rosborne979
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 10:54 am
@George,
I think we're more likely to see a big piece of the sky break off and fall on us than to see the US break up like he thinks.
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 06:39 pm
@rosborne979,
Yeah, you only need to take a quick look at his map before deciding whether or not he's a kook. It shows such precious little understanding of US culture and geopolitics that I can't bring myself to read any further.

On reddit someone aptly commented that it looks like he's been playing too much Risk.
0 Replies
 
Green Witch
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 07:00 pm
@George,
Hey, if NY goes with Europe I might actually get health insurance -Yipee!. However, I can't see my cousins in Idaho learning Chinese, although they do think General Tso's chicken and spring rolls are high cuisine.

My conclusion- this guy is clueless.
0 Replies
 
George
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 10:51 pm
My favorite is seeing the midwest as "part of Canada or under Canadian influence".
Yeah. Right after Quebec.
0 Replies
 
lmur
 
  1  
Reply Mon 29 Dec, 2008 11:26 pm
@George,
Start digging a giant trench from North Dakota to Oklahoma. We're on our way...
0 Replies
 
Sglass
 
  1  
Reply Tue 30 Dec, 2008 01:28 am
I am more inclined to believe if any of the states were to be absorbed to another country it would be Hawaii. But then I am more inclined to believe that it would regain it's independence before someone else steals it. A Japanese souveriency might not be a bad idea. I have a great deal of respect for the Japanese. Very hard working folks who never take anything for granted.

If anything I do think we would see the end of the US as a major world power and more state rights returned.
0 Replies
 
Fountofwisdom
 
  1  
Reply Thu 1 Jan, 2009 08:59 pm
The European Union will never accept Kentucky: Poulet Frite or fried chicken is a protected recipe under the treaty of Rome. Also Chefs are banned from carrying firearms. I doubt whether Colonel Sanders will join the peace corp. or start producing fried Alligator.
 

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