How fast will the fastest PCs be in 5 years?

I think that there will come a point of diminishing returns in computer speed, where greater speed is not only unnecessary, but would engender many engineering problems. I don't have the foggiest idea of what that speed would be.

The current top of the line from Intel is just over 3GHz. Using the correlation of a doubling every 18 months that puts things right around 11 or 12GHz in 5 years but I think we'll start seeing more shifts in other areas as more significant.

Every time the processor clock speed has risen significantly the failings of the other subsystems show and then we get a jump in those. The I/O bottlenecks will have to be overcome again during that 5 yar period too.

11-12?
Something seems a bit off here. If the rendition of Moore's law you quoted here continues to hold out for 5 years, since the speeds are at 3GHz right now it should be around 40GHz then. And oh how beautiful life will be!

Last night I heard that IBM was developing a computer that would be as fast as the human mind! Now how are we going to keep up with that. It is not a PC as yet. I voted not PCs, I hope for smaller more compact units so that the we won't have to use so much space. My most wanter computer component at this point is a flat screen. The speed of my unit now is satisfactory for my use.

Re: 11-12?


You are right. I used the wrong math operation. I knew what I meant but muffed it.