Autographed Memorbilia Question

I am looking into purchasing a rare signed item (rare as in the guy is dead and no more are being produced). It's at auction and the item has a ridiculously low starting bid. I contacted the person selling and inquired as to why this was. He was a third party seller (not the person selling, but selling for the person who owns the item). He said that there was no attachment to the piece and yes it was original. It comes with a COA. It looks legit. I called the place that authenticated it and they don't put numbers on the COA's so there is no way for them to look it up. Anything authenticated and sold by them has been witnessed and therefor they know is real. However, the guys said there are several different scenarios: 1) the person selling it is confident that it will sell for the value of the item 2) the person selling it took the real ball and replaced it with a fake and is selling it with the real COA and doesn't care what they get for it because they need the money 3) it's real and the person doesn't care what they get for it because they need the money. He really wouldn't say if he thought it could be real or not.

What are the chances now days of getting a steal on something? I mean, I am a pretty cynical person. I believe if it seems too good to be true it probably is. I believe that you don't get anything for nothing. But I also believe that sometimes, we just get lucky. I mean, take the guy who buys something at a garage sale for $1 to find out it's worth $10,000 (or whatever).

What's your opinion on this? It really seems legit to me, which is weird because I am pretty realistic about things. I bought jewelry off ebay last year that was "valued at $400" and got it for $10. I know it's not worth $400. It might be worth more than $10 but not $400.

The deal on this item is literally a crime. I am very hesitant to believe that it's real. Could it be a Christmas miracle?

Tell me it could be so.