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Tue 2 Sep, 2008 06:56 pm
How to use combinatorial analysis to calculate Baccarat probabilities?
Baccarat is a casino game using 8 decks of standard poker cards.
When a round is finished, some cards are dealt and seen, cards combinations in shoe(remaining cards) changed, how to calculate the chances of Player wins, Banker wins, and Tie, using combinatorial analysis.
I would put the formula into my program.
To state the obvious, you figure out the number of outcomes that result in a win, the number that result in a tie, and the number that result in a win by the house for any given situation. The probability of any outcome is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the number of possible outcomes, at least if all outcomes are equally likely. I'm guessing you know all this. It sounds like a difficult project.
I don't know Baccarat but if I were programming a card game program I'd randomize the card distribution and just play it out like in real life. It's simple and more accurate than the shortcuts.
I guess you are talking about "full decks" or "new decks" expectation, I have those firgures, but I need the expectation after some rounds are dealt.
Why don't you just take out the known cards and calculate the probability off the rest of the unknown cards that can still be dealt just like you did with the new deck.
Two reasons:
1. I want to know the advantage(and disadvantage) distributions and frequencies in different levels of deep in the shoe. There are millions of combinations in each remaining cards level. I can only do ten to twenty combinations of them.
2. I need a odds calculator to input the seen cards and output the odds at once. It is just the same as a poker odds calculator.