I Googled "Bradley Effect to see what this bit of jargon means. Apparently it refers to excuses pollsters offer for the failures of their polls & statistical analyses to accurately predict outcomes. How scientific of them to blame the subjects of their sampling & analysis for the failures of their, at best, approximate forecasting methods.
It appears to me that you are now altering your position to affirm that racism MIGHT be the central cause for an Obama defeat (if it occurs). See below --
As you noted, I don't object to that at all. My objection centered on the assertion that in the case of such a defeat it would be the necessary or most likely cause. I believe I have outlined the logic of this objection quite clearly and persuasively.
OCCOM BILL" wrote:You're a bright guy, George. Surely it can't be difficult for you to understand that racism need not inflict more than a small percentage of the electorate to affect the outcome in even a somewhat tight race, which this could well turn out to be (you’ve essentially already conceded as much). Surely you recognize that although there may be many significant contributing factors in a candidate's loss; the absence of any one of them could alter the outcome. If this is true (and it is), and you can recognize these simple truths (and you can); how can you continue to pretend fears of racism are necessarily irrational accusations against the whole of Obama's opposition? This is a pathetic straw man, George, and you should damn well have the integrity to admit it.
It isn't your apparent "fear of racism" to which I object. It is instead the irrational (in my view) accusations you made in earlier posts regarding the likely cause of an Obama defeat, should it occur. This does indeed require the selective prejudgement of numerous other likely factors in a tight election; the categorical (as opposed to specific and factual) evaluation of these factors; as well as the prejudgement of the unknowable motives of large numbers of people for actions they have not yet taken.
I don't regard the arguments I have offered as "pathetic" in any way, and I don't concede any lack of "integrity" on my part in making this case. I generally try to avoid such hyperbole, particularly in personal judgements of others whom I don't really know.