Btw, keep that pollster.com number -- Obama +1.4 -- in mind and then click back to this post
from two weeks ago, which mapped out how Obama has been doing so far compared to Kerry and Gore.
Each vertical line represents a week, so put your finger on Obama's blue line, which was then at around +3.3, and draw it down to +1.4 at two lines to the right. It'll end up about 1 point higher than where Kerry was.
To be honest, I am a little surprised that Obama hasn't been doing somewhat better. I was always sceptical about the ubiquitous bluster, just a couple of months ago, about turning point victories that would turn a swathe of states blue (not from the Obama campaign, of course, but from various liberal pundits, including posters here). That was never going to happen. But we are four years on. Bush's approval rating is down from around 50% to under 30%. The job ratings for the Republicans in Congress are down from 40-45% to 20-30%.
Of course, Bush isnt running, McCain is running. But the data is inconclusive about how major that Republican advantage vis-a-vis 2004 is. Comparing McCain's favourability ratings this summer with Bush's favourability ratings in July-August 2004, the CBS/NYT, NBC/WSJ and LA Times/Bloomberg polls actually find barely any difference, whereas the USA Today/Gallup and Newsweek polls do find a major difference.
And it's not just about poll ratings. The economy is now performing worse. 9/11 is seven years, rather than just three years ago. And to me at least, Obama seems doubtlessly more skilled a politician, and sympathetic a person, than Kerry was. But nevertheless Obama's polling against McCain is very much in the same range as Kerry's was against Bush -- and has been since March.
I know there's a few conservatives and a liberal or two who erupt into indignation if you say so, but I cant help thinking that Obama being the first black presidential nominee ever must have a lot to do with it ... Then again, it doesnt really matter why
Obama's polling is in John Kerry-range, it's good reason to be very wary either way.